Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?
Current price
8.5¢
−3.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 8.5%
$4.6K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The question asks if Itamar Ben Gvir will be the next minister, but the rules specifically target the first minister appointed after the 2026 Knesset elections rather than any immediate next appointment. Positions filled in an interim or caretaker capacity do not qualify; an official Knesset vote of confidence is required. If the ministry is restructured or renamed, resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting to identify the true successor role, with an alphabetical tie-breaker if responsibilities split across multiple new ministries. An explicit expiration deadline of February 28, 2027 resolves the market to a negative outcome if no qualifying government forms in time.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of National Security will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of National Security” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of National Security are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of National Security assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Itamar Ben Gvir will be the first person to assume office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Itamar Ben Gvir (or Yes) if he is the first individual to assume office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. The appointment must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence or subsequent vote, and interim or caretaker ministers do not count. Successor positions retaining primary responsibilities qualify, with alphabetical tie-breaking if split. The market resolves to another candidate or No if a different individual qualifies first. It resolves to "No Next Minister by Feb 28" if no qualifying minister assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Official information from the Government of Israel is the primary source, alongside credible reporting.
Key dates
- Cutoff date: — Deadline of 11:59 PM ET for a minister to assume office before resolving to "No Next Minister by Feb 28"
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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