Will Amir Ohana be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?
Current price
1.3¢
Implied probability 1.3%
$1.3K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules narrow the question significantly: it does not cover the immediate next minister in the current government, but strictly the person who assumes office in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections. A reader looking only at the title might assume any mid-term appointment counts, but caretaker or interim ministers and appointments prior to the post-2026 government are excluded. Additionally, if ministerial portfolios are restructured, determining whether a position retains primary responsibilities relies on a consensus of reporting rather than a strictly defined official metric, and split portfolios trigger an alphabetical tie-breaker by the appointee's full name. There is also a hard deadline of February 28, 2027, resolving to a specific fallback outcome if government formation stalls.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of National Security will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of National Security” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of National Security are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of National Security assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Amir Ohana becomes the first person to take office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Amir Ohana (Yes) if he is the first individual to assume office as Israeli Minister of National Security (or an approved successor position retaining primary responsibilities) in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections, confirmed via a Knesset vote of confidence or approval vote. Interim or caretaker ministers do not count, and later replacements are disregarded. If responsibilities split across multiple successor roles, the person whose full name is first alphabetically resolves the market. The market resolves to another individual or No if someone else qualifies first. It resolves to 'No Next Minister by Feb 28' if no qualifying minister takes office by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined using official information from the Government of Israel or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline by 11:59 PM ET for a qualifying minister to assume office before resolving to 'No Next Minister by Feb 28'.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting
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