38¢
+3.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 38%
$20K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
This market resolves based on who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections, resolving to No Next Minister by Feb 28 if none takes office by February 28, 2027. Participants should note several complex exception clauses: interim or caretaker ministers explicitly do not count, and the appointment requires formal Knesset approval. Additionally, if the ministry is restructured or renamed, the determination of what constitutes a successor position retaining primary responsibilities relies on a consensus of credible reporting. If responsibilities split across multiple new positions, an arbitrary alphabetical tiebreaker applies. While official Israeli government information is the primary source, reporting consensus is permitted as a fallback.
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
The price fell from 45% to 35%, but available news reports and market data provide no clear catalyst for the move.
AI-generated · 17 Oct 2026, 17:05 UTC
The price rose from 35% to 52%, but available news reports and market data show no clear catalyst for the move.
AI-generated · 17 Oct 2026, 06:40 UTC
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of National Security will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of National Security” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of National Security are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of National Security assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history is not displayed yet.
This market measures whether no individual assumes office as the Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections by February 28, 2027.
The market resolves to "No Next Minister by Feb 28" if no qualifying individual assumes office as Minister of National Security by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it resolves to the individual who first assumes the office in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To qualify, the ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence or subsequent confirmation vote. Interim or caretaker ministers do not count, and subsequent replacements after an initial qualifying appointment do not affect resolution. If the post is split among multiple successor positions holding primary responsibilities, resolution goes to the appointee whose full name comes first alphabetically. Official information from the Government of Israel or a consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome.
Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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