Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
Last captured price
12.5¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 12.5%
$8.7K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The title asks who the next Minister of Foreign Affairs will be, but the rules explicitly restrict the outcome to the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections. Any minister appointed during the current Knesset term will be completely ignored for resolution. The rules also exclude interim or caretaker appointments and require formal Knesset approval. If the ministry is restructured or split, resolution relies on evaluating primary responsibilities via a consensus of credible reporting, with an alphabetical tie-breaker if multiple successor roles exist. A definitive cutoff date of February 28, 2027 is set if no qualifying government or appointment takes place.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Foreign Affairs” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Foreign Affairs are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Foreign Affairs assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Avigdor Lieberman becomes the first Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs in the government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections. It specifically excludes interim or caretaker appointees and features an alphabetical tiebreaker if the portfolio is split among successor roles.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Avigdor Lieberman is the first person to assume office as Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs (or a recognized successor position retaining primary responsibilities) in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections, approved via a Knesset vote of confidence or subsequent confirmation. Interim or caretaker ministers do not count, and subsequent replacements after an initial qualifying appointment do not affect the outcome. If multiple successor positions share primary responsibilities, the appointee whose full name is first alphabetically resolves the market. The market resolves No if another individual qualifies first or if no qualifying minister assumes office by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined using official information from the Government of Israel or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to 'No Next Minister by Feb 28' if no qualifying minister assumes office by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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