Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
Current price
4.95¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.95%
$9.4K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The title asks if Gideon Sa'ar will be the next foreign minister, but the underlying rules specifically tie resolution to the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections rather than simply whoever next takes the office in the current government. If an appointment occurs before the 2026 election, it does not count under these rules. The market requires a Knesset vote of confidence and excludes interim or caretaker ministers. In addition, there is an explicit timeout deadline of February 28, 2027, resolving to a specific outcome if no post-election government forms in time. There is also an unusual alphabetical tie-breaker if foreign affairs responsibilities are split across multiple new successor ministries, which relies on consensus reporting to evaluate portfolio duties.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Foreign Affairs” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Foreign Affairs are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Foreign Affairs assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Gideon Sa'ar will be the first person to take office as the Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs in the government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Gideon Sa'ar is the first individual to assume office as Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs (or an approved successor position retaining primary responsibilities) in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections, confirmed via a Knesset vote of confidence. Interim or caretaker ministers do not count, and later replacements are disregarded. The market resolves No if another individual qualifies first. If no qualifying minister takes office by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "No Next Minister by Feb 28". Official information from the Government of Israel or a consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline for a qualifying minister to assume office before resolving to 'No Next Minister by Feb 28'.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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