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CryptoCloses · in 2 days$839.8 volumePart of: Bitcoin above ___ on November 16? →

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 16?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules are unambiguous and establish a clear, deterministic resolution process.

Read the full assessment

The rules are unambiguous and establish a clear, deterministic resolution process. The outcome depends entirely on a single, specific 1-minute candle on Binance for the BTC/USDT pair at exactly 12:00 PM ET on November 16. The data source, trading pair, timeframe, and threshold metric are explicitly defined, leaving virtually no room for subjective judgment or timing disputes.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

3%

chance

▼ −37.75 pts · 24h

Yes3¢
No97¢
74,000 · Yes · 1MO 62.5 H 62.5 L 2.4 C 3.3−59.3 (−94.8%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −41 pts24h · detected 12 Nov 2026, 11:25 UTC

The market price dropped from 51% to 17% as Bitcoin fell 0.6% on Binance during the move hour, making it less likely to finish above $74,000.

  • Largest hourly change: 22:00 UTC, 68% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −0.6% in the move hour, −0.7% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 4 days after the move hour.
  • 3 related outcomes moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: 72,000 (up), 76,000 (down), 68,000 (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 20:50 UTC

Earlier

▲ +12 pts · 11 Nov 2026, 16:25 UTCThe price rose from 41% to 53% as Bitcoin gained 1.52% over 24 hours, trading near the $74,000 threshold and making closing above that level more likely.Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.AI-generated · 11 Nov 2026, 16:35 UTC

Earlier

▼ −11 pts · 11 Nov 2026, 15:10 UTCThe market fell from 56% to 45% as Bitcoin dropped 1.59% on Binance during the move hour, making it less likely to finish above $74,000.Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.AI-generated · 11 Nov 2026, 15:20 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Market explained

This market measures whether the Binance BTC/USDT price is above $74,000 at a specific minute on November 16, 2026. Resolution is tied strictly to Binance's 1-minute candle close price rather than other exchanges or trading pairs.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on November 16, 2026, has a final Close price strictly higher than $74,000. It resolves to No if the Close price is equal to or less than $74,000. Price precision follows the decimal places reported by the source. Resolution is determined by Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data.

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1m candle close price

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·