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CryptoCloses · in 1 day$949.2 volumePart of: Bitcoin above ___ on November 15? →

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on November 15?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: This market features clear and deterministic resolution criteria.

Read the full assessment

This market features clear and deterministic resolution criteria. It specifies an exact exchange, specific trading pair (BTC/USDT), exact chart timeframe (1-minute candle), and precise timestamp (12:00 PM ET on November 15) to evaluate the threshold. The resolution relies entirely on the final close figure from Binance rather than an open-ended consensus or discretionary decider, leaving minimal room for ambiguity or unexpected outcomes.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

<1%

chance

▼ −1.7 pts · 24h

Yes<1¢
No>99¢
78,000 · Yes · 1MO 23.0 H 24.0 L 0.3 C 0.7−22.3 (−97.0%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −21 pts24h · detected 10 Nov 2026, 14:40 UTC

The market fell from 19% to 6% as the November 15 deadline approached, with Bitcoin trading roughly 5.8% below the $78,000 threshold and time decay reducing the likelihood of reaching it.

  • Largest hourly change: 15:00 UTC, 57% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): +0.8% in the move hour, −1.5% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 5 days after the move hour.

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 11 Nov 2026, 09:35 UTC

Earlier

▲ +12 pts · 10 Nov 2026, 09:25 UTCThe price rose from 17% to 29%, moving alongside 4 related strike price markets for the same date as Bitcoin traded within 4.38% of $78,000.Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 09:36 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Market explained

This market measures whether the Binance BTC/USDT price will be above $78,000 at noon ET on November 15, based specifically on the 1-minute candle close.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on November 15 has a final Close price strictly higher than $78,000. It resolves to No if the Close price is less than or equal to $78,000. Prices from other exchanges or trading pairs are disregarded. Price precision follows the number of decimal places provided by the source. Resolution is determined by Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data.

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1m candle data

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·