Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define the resolution criteria using a specific, official government source: the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index reports for 2026.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define the resolution criteria using a specific, official government source: the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index reports for 2026. The metric is explicitly defined as the 12-month percentage increase for any month ending in 2026, measured to one decimal place as officially published. The rules also establish clear timing constraints, specifying that the market can resolve early to Yes if the threshold is met, but cannot resolve to No until the December 2026 report is released, with a definitive fallback date of January 31, 2027, and an explicit clause ignoring subsequent revisions.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market explained
This market measures whether the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual inflation rate exceeds 10% in any month of 2026 according to monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics reports.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the CPI increases by more than 10% over the 12-month period ending with any month in 2026. The market resolves to No if no month in 2026 records a 12-month CPI increase greater than 10% once the December 2026 report is released. The market cannot resolve to No until the December 2026 report is issued. If the December 2026 report is not issued by January 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves using the CPI figures already released. Resolution relies on the official monthly BLS Consumer Price Index news releases, measured to one decimal place. Revisions released after the December 2026 report are disregarded.
Resolution source
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index reports
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·