Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that resolution relies on official monthly Consumer Price Index reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for 2026.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that resolution relies on official monthly Consumer Price Index reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for 2026. A definitive threshold of greater than 6.0% (reported to one decimal point) over any 12-month period ending in 2026 triggers a positive resolution. The market can resolve immediately if the threshold is met, but cannot resolve negatively until the December 2026 report is released, with a clear fallback deadline of January 31, 2027, if that report is delayed. Subsequent revisions to data are explicitly excluded.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market explained
This market measures whether 12-month US CPI inflation reaches more than 6% in any month of 2026. Resolution relies on the monthly figures reported to one decimal point and ignores any revisions made after the December 2026 report.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than 6% over the 12-month period ending in any month of 2026. The market resolves to No if no month in 2026 exceeds 6%. The market cannot resolve to No until the December 2026 report is released, or after January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET if the December report is not issued by then. Once the December 2026 report is released, revisions to previously released CPI figures do not count. The deciding source is the official monthly BLS CPI news release, using figures reported to one decimal place.
Resolution source
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index reports
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·