Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the exact metric, threshold, and resolution mechanism.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the exact metric, threshold, and resolution mechanism. Resolution relies strictly on official Consumer Price Index monthly releases from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for each month in 2026. The market explicitly defines the required 12-month calculation, notes that the figures are evaluated to one decimal place as reported in the official release, and handles early positive resolution alongside a clear cut-off date for the final December 2026 release with post-release revisions excluded.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
5%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market explained
This market measures whether the 12-month Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate exceeds 5% in any month of 2026, using BLS monthly reports rounded to one decimal place.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the BLS reports that the Consumer Price Index increased by more than 5% over the 12-month period ending in any month in 2026, based on the official monthly news release precision of one decimal place. The market resolves to No if no 12-month period ending in 2026 exceeds 5%. The market cannot resolve to No until the December 2026 report is published. Once that report is issued, revisions to previously released figures are disregarded. If the December 2026 report is not issued by January 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, resolution will rely on the CPI figures already released. The Bureau of Labor Statistics serves as the deciding resolution source.
Resolution source
Bureau of Labor Statistics
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·