How high will inflation get in 2026?
1 live outcome · highest priced: Above 5% at 5% · first close Jan 1, 2027 · $812.9K total volume
About this event
This event tracks the highest year-over-year inflation rate in the United States during 2026. Markets measure whether the 12-month Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase exceeds specific percentage thresholds in any monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics report for 2026.
How the outcomes relate
The event is structured as a ladder of threshold markets based on annual CPI percentage increases. More than one market can resolve Yes if inflation exceeds multiple threshold levels, as a higher rate will automatically surpass lower thresholds.
How it resolves
Each market resolves to Yes if the BLS reports that the 12-month CPI increase for any month in 2026 is strictly greater than the listed threshold percentage. If no month in 2026 exceeds the target threshold, the market resolves to No. Markets cannot resolve to No until the December 2026 CPI report is released. Any revisions issued after the December 2026 report are disregarded. If the December 2026 report is not published by January 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, resolution proceeds using whatever 2026 data has already been published. Data precision is limited to one decimal place as reported in the official release.
Key dates
- December 2026 CPI report release cutoff: — If the December 2026 report is not issued by 11:59 PM ET on this date, resolution uses already available BLS data.
Resolution source
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index reports
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5% | 5% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Above 4.5% | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Above 6% | — | — | Low | Med | |
| Above 8% | — | — | Not rated | Low | |
| Above 10% | — | — | Low | Med |