Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by November 30, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market clearly defines what constitutes an exit, resolving to Yes if Marco Rubio ceases to hold the office or if an announcement of his resignation or removal is made before the November 30, 2026 deadline, even if the effective date occurs later.
Read the full assessment
This market clearly defines what constitutes an exit, resolving to Yes if Marco Rubio ceases to hold the office or if an announcement of his resignation or removal is made before the November 30, 2026 deadline, even if the effective date occurs later. Resolution primarily relies on official government statements or statements from Rubio himself, though resolvers may also fall back on a consensus of credible reporting if necessary. The criteria and cutoff time are clearly specified with little room for alternative interpretations.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance▼ −0.25 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marco Rubio ceases to be U.S. Secretary of State for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Marco Rubio's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Marco Rubio and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Marco Rubio ceases to serve as U.S. Secretary of State before the end of November 2026. An announcement of his resignation or removal triggers immediate resolution to Yes, even if it takes effect later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Marco Rubio ceases to be U.S. Secretary of State for any period between market creation and November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market also resolves to Yes immediately if an announcement of his resignation or removal occurs by the end date, regardless of when that departure formally takes effect. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The outcome is determined using official information from Marco Rubio and the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from Marco Rubio and the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·