Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by November 15, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves to Yes if Marco Rubio ceases to serve as Secretary of State or if an announcement of his resignation or removal is made before the November 15, 2026 deadline.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves to Yes if Marco Rubio ceases to serve as Secretary of State or if an announcement of his resignation or removal is made before the November 15, 2026 deadline. Participants should note the early-resolution clause: a mere announcement of an impending departure triggers a Yes resolution immediately, even if the actual departure date is scheduled far past the market deadline. Resolution is based on official statements from Rubio or the U.S. government, but a consensus of credible reporting is also permitted as a fallback, introducing some latitude for the resolving party.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marco Rubio ceases to be U.S. Secretary of State for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Marco Rubio's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Marco Rubio and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Marco Rubio ceases to serve as U.S. Secretary of State before the end of November 15, 2026, or if his resignation/removal is officially announced by that time.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Marco Rubio ceases to be U.S. Secretary of State for any period of time between market creation and November 15, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An official announcement of his resignation or removal before the market end date immediately resolves the market to Yes, regardless of when it takes effect. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution decisions are based on official information from Marco Rubio and the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from Marco Rubio and the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·