Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by...?
4 live outcomes · highest priced: March 31, 2027 at 24% (+3 pts in 24h) · first close Nov 16, 2026 · $343.5K total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether Marco Rubio ceases to serve as U.S. Secretary of State across various timeline milestones. Each market corresponds to a specific cutoff date and evaluates whether his departure or an announcement of his departure occurs on or before that date.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of a timeline ladder of deadline markets. Multiple markets can resolve Yes: if Marco Rubio leaves office or an announcement occurs prior to an earlier target date, that market and all subsequent later-dated markets will resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if Marco Rubio ceases to be U.S. Secretary of State for any period of time between market creation and the specified cutoff date at 11:59 PM ET. Additionally, an announcement of his resignation or removal made by the market's end date immediately triggers a Yes resolution, regardless of when the departure takes effect. Otherwise, the market resolves to No.
Key dates
- November 6, 2026 deadline: — Evaluation cutoff at 11:59 PM ET.
- November 8, 2026 deadline: — Evaluation cutoff at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from Marco Rubio and the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31, 2027 | 24% | ▲ 3 | Low | High | |
| December 31, 2026 | 7% | ▼ 1 | Med | Med | |
| November 30, 2026 | 3% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| November 15, 2026 | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| November 6, 2026 | — | — | Low | Med | Resolved |
| November 8, 2026 | — | — | Med | Med | Resolved |