Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by November 6, 2026?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before close
- 7 days before close
- Not captured
- 24 hours before close
- Not captured
- 1 hour before close
Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The market has a clear deadline and explicit criteria for resolving to Yes if Marco Rubio leaves office or an announcement of resignation or removal occurs before the cutoff. Holders should be aware of the early resolution clause, which triggers a Yes outcome immediately upon an official announcement even if the effective departure date falls after the market deadline or later in the term. Resolution relies primarily on official statements from the government or Marco Rubio, with fallback to a consensus of credible reporting, introducing modest discretion only if official channels are ambiguous or delayed.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before close.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Marco Rubio leaves his position as U.S. Secretary of State by November 6, 2026, including via an advance announcement of departure.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Marco Rubio ceases to be U.S. Secretary of State for any period of time between market creation and November 6, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of his resignation or removal made by the market end date also immediately resolves the market to Yes, regardless of when it takes effect. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution decisions are based on official information from Marco Rubio and the U.S. government, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Cutoff at 11:59 PM ET for departure or announced departure
Resolution source
Official information from Marco Rubio and the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marco Rubio ceases to be U.S. Secretary of State for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Marco Rubio's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Marco Rubio and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.