France declares state of emergency by...?

This event tracks whether a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) takes effect in France by specified milestone dates. Each market measures whether this legal condition is met by a particular deadline.

How the outcomes relate

The event consists of a timeline ladder of cumulative deadlines. If an earlier market resolves Yes due to a qualifying decree entering into effect, subsequent markets with later deadlines will also resolve Yes, meaning multiple markets can resolve Yes.

How it resolves

A market resolves to Yes if a legally binding decree declaring an état d'urgence under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955, enters into effect across any part of the French Republic (including overseas territories) between creation and the target date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Other declarations (such as public health emergencies, states of siege, Article 16 powers, Vigipirate levels, or natural disaster declarations) do not qualify. Resolution relies on the Journal Officiel de la République française or a consensus of credible reporting.

Key dates

• October 21 deadline: Oct 21, 2026 — 11:59 PM ET
• October 31 deadline: Oct 31, 2026 — 11:59 PM ET

Resolution source

Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr) or a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 20 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC