France declares state of emergency by October 21, 2026?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- Not captured
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
- Not captured
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide exceptionally clear and legally specific criteria, requiring an official decree under French Law No. 55-385 entering into effect by the deadline. It explicitly lists numerous alternative emergency powers, health emergency declarations, and security alerts that do not qualify, preventing confusion over related legal mechanisms. The primary resolution source is the official government gazette (Journal Officiel), minimizing any decider discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether France declares a legally binding state of emergency by October 21, 2026. Resolution is specific to declarations made strictly under Law No. 55-385, excluding other emergency powers or public health declarations.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 enters into effect anywhere in the French Republic (including overseas territories) between creation and October 21, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Public health emergencies, states of siege under Article 36, Article 16 exceptional powers, Vigipirate levels, natural disaster declarations, and orders outside Law No. 55-385 do not count. The market resolves to No if no qualifying decree enters into effect. Resolution relies on the Journal Officiel de la République française or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution cutoff: — Decree must enter into effect by 11:59 PM ET on this date
Resolution source
Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr) or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.