France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the exact legal basis required for a positive resolution, explicitly citing Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955, and listing specific non-qualifying declarations such as public health emergencies, states of siege, and Vigipirate alerts. Official decrees published via the Journal Officiel on legifrance.gouv.fr serve as the primary source, with an explicit deadline and timezone specified. The detailed inclusions and exclusions provide very little room for interpretive disagreement.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether France enters a legally binding state of emergency by October 31, 2026. Resolution is limited strictly to decrees under Law No. 55-385, excluding other emergency powers such as health emergencies or Article 16 powers.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 enters into effect anywhere in the French Republic (including overseas territories) between creation and October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Public health emergencies, states of siege, Article 16 powers, Vigipirate 'Urgence attentat' levels, natural disaster declarations, and non-statutory prefectoral orders do not count. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is decided using the Journal Officiel de la République française, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Yes if a qualifying decree takes effect by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr), or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.