Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves early to Yes if an announcement of resignation or removal occurs before the deadline, even if the effective departure date is scheduled for after September 30, 2026. The rules also allow a Yes resolution if Vladimir Putin is detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling his duties, which leaves room for interpretation during non-standard political crises or severe health events. For evidence, official Russian government communications are primary, but the resolver may rely on a consensus of credible reporting, granting broad latitude in evaluating competing claims or unconfirmed reports.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Vladimir Putin will cease to serve as President of Russia by September 30, 2026. Unusually, an official announcement of his resignation or removal immediately triggers resolution even if the departure takes effect at a later date.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period between market creation and September 30, 2026 (ET). A Yes resolution also occurs immediately if an announcement of his resignation or removal is made before the deadline, regardless of when it takes effect, or if he is detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling his duties. The market resolves to No if none of these conditions are met within the timeframe. Resolution is determined using official information from Vladimir Putin and the Russian government, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- End date: — Deadline for Putin to cease serving as president or for a removal announcement to occur (ET).
Resolution source
Official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.