Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?
Current price
21.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 21.5%
$53.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly align with the market question, defining resolution based on an official announcement by OpenAI representatives or verified channels that they have filed or intend to file for bankruptcy. The resolution criteria explicitly note that an official announcement alone suffices regardless of whether the legal filing is finalized. While resolution can rely on a consensus of credible reporting if necessary, the scope of what constitutes an announcement from official representatives is well bounded.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents OpenAI. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether OpenAI will announce that it has filed or will file for bankruptcy by December 31, 2029. An announcement alone triggers resolution even if an actual filing does not occur.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI announces that it has filed or will file for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2029, at 11:59 PM ET. The announcement suffices regardless of if or when an actual filing happens. To qualify, the announcement must come through official or verified channels, or appear as a recorded or written statement from the CEO, legal representation, or other official OpenAI representatives. A definitive consensus of credible reporting also qualifies. Otherwise, the market resolves to No.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
OpenAI official channels, statements from official representatives, or a definitive consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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