Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?
Current price
16.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 16.5%
$49.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria clearly align with the question, focusing specifically on an announcement of bankruptcy rather than the completion of legal proceedings. Statements must come directly from OpenAI through official channels, company leadership, or legal representatives, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be referenced if an announcement occurs. The deadline is explicitly set to December 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, leaving minimal room for misunderstanding.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents OpenAI. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether OpenAI will announce that it has filed or plans to file for any form of bankruptcy by the end of 2028. Notably, an official announcement alone satisfies the condition regardless of whether or when an actual bankruptcy filing occurs.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. The announcement suffices regardless of if or when an actual filing takes place. Qualifying announcements must be made via official or verified channels, or as a recorded or written statement by OpenAI's CEO, legal representation, or other official representatives. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also trigger a Yes resolution. Otherwise, the market resolves to No.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Announcement must occur by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Official or verified OpenAI channels, statements by the CEO or legal representatives, or a definitive consensus of credible reporting
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