Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?
Current price
7.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 7.5%
$234.8K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves positively if OpenAI publicly announces an intention to file or an actual filing for any variety of bankruptcy before the end of 2027. Holders should note that an actual legal filing is not required as long as an official announcement is made. While primary verification relies on official statements from company leadership, legal counsel, or official channels, the rules also permit resolution based on a definitive consensus of credible media reporting, which leaves room for decider judgment if reports conflict or if rumors circulate without formal corporate confirmation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents OpenAI. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether OpenAI announces an upcoming or completed bankruptcy filing by December 31, 2027. Resolution depends on the announcement itself rather than the execution of an actual bankruptcy filing.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI announces by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety. An announcement alone triggers a Yes resolution, regardless of whether or when an actual filing takes place. The announcement must come via OpenAI's official or verified channels, or as a recorded or written statement from their CEO, legal representation, or other official OpenAI representative, or through a definitive consensus of credible reporting. Otherwise, the market resolves to No.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — The deadline by which OpenAI must announce bankruptcy for a Yes resolution.
Resolution source
OpenAI official channels, statements from the CEO, legal representatives, official representatives, or a definitive consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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