Fed rate cut by January 2027 meeting?
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are clearly stated, defining the metric as a decrease in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate within an explicit timeframe between December 16, 2025, and the completion of the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The rules explicitly include emergency rate cuts and provide a clear fallback deadline resolving to No if no meeting occurs by February 7, 2027. Resolution relies directly on official announcements from the Federal Reserve website, with reporting consensus available as a backup.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2027, currently scheduled for January 26 to 27. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between December 16, 2025, and the end of the January 2027 FOMC meeting.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025, and the completion of the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Emergency rate cuts qualify toward a Yes resolution. The market resolves to No if no rate cut occurs within this timeframe. The market also resolves to No if no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET and no qualifying rate cut has been announced. The primary resolution source is the official website of the Federal Reserve, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Window start date: — Start of the qualifying period for a rate cut.
- FOMC meeting start: — Scheduled start of the January 2027 FOMC meeting.
- FOMC meeting end: — Scheduled completion of the January 2027 FOMC meeting.
- Fallback deadline: — Market resolves to No if no January meeting occurs and no cut is announced by this time.
Resolution source
Official website of the Federal Reserve, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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