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Tech & ScienceCloses · in 412 days$116.3K volumePart of: Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...? →

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?

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Medium

2 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: This market resolves based on an official announcement rather than the completed transaction, meaning a announced deal that later collapses still resolves to Yes.

Read the full assessment

This market resolves based on an official announcement rather than the completed transaction, meaning a announced deal that later collapses still resolves to Yes. The rules introduce some judgment by allowing partial acquisitions to count if they grant a controlling interest, which is defined as strategic control or equivalent voting rights rather than a strict mathematical equity share. While official communications from Tesla or SpaceX are the primary source, the resolver is also permitted to rely on a consensus of credible reporting, adding decider discretion if reporting is mixed.

Resolver
Medium
Timing
Low
Wording
Medium
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

84%

chance

▲ +6 pts · 24h

Yes84¢
No16¢
December 31, 2027 · Yes · 1MO 65.5 H 84.0 L 60.5 C 84.0+18.5 (+28.2%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +11 pts24h · detected 12 Nov 2026, 23:55 UTC

The market rose from 68% to 78%, moving alongside a related market for a December 31, 2026 merger announcement date which also climbed, a likely driver of the shift.

  • Largest hourly change: 20:00 UTC, 52% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 414 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: December 31, 2026 (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for tech & science markets yet.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 14 Nov 2026, 00:20 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market explained

This market measures whether an official announcement is made that Tesla, Inc. and SpaceX will merge or acquire a controlling interest in each other by December 31, 2027. Resolution depends only on the official announcement, regardless of whether the deal closes.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if an official announcement is made by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET stating that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa. This includes announcements where one company acquires a controlling interest (typically over 50% equity or voting/governance control) in the other, regardless of whether the transaction actually completes. Transactions without a transfer of controlling interest do not count. The market resolves to No if no qualifying announcement occurs by the deadline. The deciding source is official information from Tesla or SpaceX, or a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

Official information from Tesla or SpaceX, or a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·