Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- Not captured
- 24 hours before
- Not captured
- 1 hour before
- Not captured
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that an official announcement from either company of a merger, acquisition, or controlling interest transfer triggers a positive resolution, even if the deal is not finalized within the timeframe. While official statements from Tesla or SpaceX are the primary evidence, the decider also allows a consensus of credible reporting to confirm the announcement, introducing some interpretive judgment. The end date is firmly set for September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether an official announcement of a merger or acquisition between Tesla and SpaceX occurs by September 30, 2026. The market resolves based on an announcement, not the completion of the transaction, and includes partial sales that result in a controlling interest.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Tesla or SpaceX officially announces that one company will acquire or merge with the other by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This includes announcements of partial sales where the acquiring company gains a controlling interest, defined as sufficient ownership to control strategic decisions, typically over 50% of equity or equivalent voting rights. Announcements of transactions or investments that do not transfer a controlling interest do not count. The market resolves No if no such official announcement is made by the specified deadline. The resolution is determined by official information from Tesla or SpaceX, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market close date: — Deadline for the announcement to occur.
Resolution source
official information from Tesla or SpaceX
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.