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Tech & ScienceCloses · in 47 days$394.6K volumePart of: Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...? →

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?

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Medium

2 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The question omits the target year, which the detailed rules clarify as December 31, 2026.

Read the full assessment

The question omits the target year, which the detailed rules clarify as December 31, 2026. Resolution triggers upon an official announcement even if the transaction is never finalized or closed. While a full merger or buyout is straightforward, the rules also count partial transactions that convey a controlling interest, defined as sufficient equity or governance rights to direct strategic decisions. Determining whether a complex, non-standard corporate restructuring conveys sufficient voting control could introduce interpretive debate. Official company communications serve as the primary source, but the market permits resolution via a consensus of credible reporting if needed.

Resolver
Medium
Timing
Low
Wording
Medium
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Last captured price

31%

chance

↔ ±0 pts · 24h

Yes31¢
No70¢

December 31, 2026 · Yes · 1MO 22.5 H 30.5 L 8.5 C 30.5+8.0 (+35.6%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +22 pts24h · detected 12 Nov 2026, 20:25 UTC

The price rose from 10% to 31% alongside gains in related merger timeline markets, including the December 31, 2027 outcome, pointing to a broader repricing across related contracts as the likely driver.

  • Largest hourly change: 20:00 UTC, 97% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 49 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: December 31, 2027 (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for tech & science markets yet.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 20:50 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market explained

This market measures whether an official announcement is made that Tesla and SpaceX will merge or that one will acquire the other by December 31, 2026. Resolution depends solely on an official announcement being made within the timeframe, regardless of whether the transaction actually completes.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if an official announcement is made that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Announcements of partial sales qualify for Yes only if the acquiring company gains a controlling interest, defined as sufficient ownership to control strategic decisions (typically over 50% equity or equivalent voting control). Transactions without a transfer of controlling interest do not count. The announced deal does not need to complete within the timeframe. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The primary source is official information from Tesla or SpaceX, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution source

Official information from Tesla or SpaceX, or a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·