Will Adriana Hernández Íñiguez win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that the market resolves based on the winning candidate of the 2027 Michoacán gubernatorial election, excluding interim or caretaker positions.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that the market resolves based on the winning candidate of the 2027 Michoacán gubernatorial election, excluding interim or caretaker positions. While the initial resolution standard relies on a consensus of credible reporting, it includes a clear fallback to official election authorities (such as the Electoral Institute of Michoacán and the INE) in the event of any ambiguity. A definitive cutoff date of December 31, 2027, resolves to 'Other' if election results remain unconfirmed, leaving sufficient time following the scheduled June election.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Michoacán on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Michoacán gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Michoacán and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Michoacán and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Market explained
This market measures whether Adriana Hernández Íñiguez will win the 2027 Michoacán gubernatorial election. It resolves to 'Other' if the winner is not definitively known by the end of 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Adriana Hernández Íñiguez wins the 2027 Michoacán gubernatorial election. Interim or caretaker governors do not qualify. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to 'Other' if the results are not definitively known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity exists, it resolves solely based on official government results from Michoacán and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Michoacán and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from government sources of Michoacán and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Michoacán and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·