Will Netzahualcóyotl Alarcón Pedraza win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on the official winner of the 2027 Michoacán gubernatorial election.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on the official winner of the 2027 Michoacán gubernatorial election. The criteria are straightforward, explicitly excluding interim or caretaker appointments. Resolution relies on credible consensus reporting with a clear fallback to official election authorities (the Electoral Institute of Michoacán and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico) if any ambiguity arises. A generous backstop date of December 31, 2027, accounts for certification or legal challenges, resolving to 'Other' if an outcome is not definitively established by then.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Michoacán on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Michoacán gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Michoacán and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Michoacán and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Market explained
This market measures whether Netzahualcóyotl Alarcón Pedraza will win the 2027 gubernatorial election in Michoacán, Mexico. It features a specific deadline after which unresolved results trigger an "Other" resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Netzahualcóyotl Alarcón Pedraza wins the 2027 Michoacán gubernatorial election. Interim or caretaker governors do not qualify. The market resolves No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to "Other" if the election results are not definitively known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. In cases of ambiguity, resolution relies solely on official results from government sources of Michoacán and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Michoacán and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official government sources including the Electoral Institute of Michoacán and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico as fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·