Will Ana Lilia Guillén Quiroz win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves clearly based on whether the named candidate wins the scheduled 2027 Michoacán gubernatorial election.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves clearly based on whether the named candidate wins the scheduled 2027 Michoacán gubernatorial election. The rules specify that interim or caretaker governors do not count, which prevents ambiguity over temporary appointments. Resolution initially relies on a consensus of credible reporting, but provides a clear fallback to official election authorities (such as the Electoral Institute of Michoacán and INE) if any reporting ambiguity arises. A generous deadline of December 31, 2027 provides ample time for certification, with a neutral resolution to 'Other' if definitive results are not available by then.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Michoacán on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Michoacán gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Michoacán and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Michoacán and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ana Lilia Guillén Quiroz will win the 2027 gubernatorial election in Michoacán, Mexico.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ana Lilia Guillén Quiroz wins the 2027 Michoacán gubernatorial election. Interim or caretaker governors do not qualify. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from government sources of Michoacán and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Michoacán and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico, if ambiguity exists.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from government sources of Michoacán and Mexico including the Electoral Institute of Michoacán and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·