Will Celeste Ascencio Ortega win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on the official winner of the June 2027 Michoacán gubernatorial election.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on the official winner of the June 2027 Michoacán gubernatorial election. The outcome initially relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to official election authorities (such as the Electoral Institute of Michoacán and INE) if ambiguity arises. Interim or caretaker governors are explicitly excluded. There is a broad expiration buffer until December 31, 2027, resolving to Other if the results are not definitively determined by then.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Michoacán on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Michoacán gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Michoacán and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Michoacán and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Market explained
This market measures whether Celeste Ascencio Ortega will win the 2027 gubernatorial election in Michoacán, Mexico. Interim or caretaker governors do not qualify.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Celeste Ascencio Ortega wins the 2027 Michoacán gubernatorial election. Interim or caretaker governors will not qualify. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results are not definitively known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official government sources including the Electoral Institute of Michoacán and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official government sources including the Electoral Institute of Michoacán and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·