Will Tomás de Jesús López Bajo win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution criteria clearly specify that the named candidate must win the scheduled election to qualify, explicitly excluding any interim or caretaker appointments.
Read the full assessment
The resolution criteria clearly specify that the named candidate must win the scheduled election to qualify, explicitly excluding any interim or caretaker appointments. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, with formal fallback authority assigned to Mexican and Sinaloan electoral bodies including INE and IEES if any ambiguity arises. The market includes a long buffer period extending to December 31, 2027, which gives ample time for vote certification and legal challenges, resolving to an alternate outcome if official results remain unresolved past that date.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sinaloa on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sinaloa and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sinaloa and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Market explained
This market measures whether Tomás de Jesús López Bajo will win the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial election. It excludes any interim or caretaker governors from qualifying.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Tomás de Jesús López Bajo wins the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial election. Interim or caretaker governors do not qualify. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if election results are not definitively known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from government sources including the Electoral Institute of Sinaloa and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official government sources including the Electoral Institute of Sinaloa and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·