Will Imelda Castro Castro win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on the official winner of the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial election.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on the official winner of the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial election. Resolution relies first on a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to official election authorities (the Electoral Institute of Sinaloa and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico) if reporting is ambiguous. Interim or caretaker governors are explicitly excluded, and a generous deadline through December 31, 2027, accounts for any potential certification delays, resolving to Other if definitive results are not known by then.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
65%
chance▼ −1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sinaloa on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sinaloa and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sinaloa and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Market explained
This market measures whether Imelda Castro Castro will win the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial election. Interim or caretaker governors do not qualify for resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Imelda Castro Castro wins the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial election, excluding any interim or caretaker governorships. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The deciding source is a consensus of credible reporting, or in cases of ambiguity, official government results from Sinaloa and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sinaloa and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official government sources including the Electoral Institute of Sinaloa and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·