Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,000 by end of December?
Last captured price
3.9¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.9%
$16.2K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market relies on a single, authoritative source with zero decider discretion by tracking official CME Group daily settlement prices for the active Gold futures contract through December 2026. However, anyone reading only the question should note that intraday lows and flash dips do not count toward resolution; the threshold must be met specifically by the official daily settlement price. Additionally, resolution locks in based on the first published settlement figure and ignores any subsequent corrections CME Group might issue.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or below the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market’s creation will not be considered. For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures. If the official settlement price for any relevant trading day has not been published on the CME Group website within 72 hours of the final trading day (ET) of the specified period, the market will resolve based on the settlement prices published through all CME channels up to that point.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the official settlement price for CME Gold (GC) futures drops to $3,000 or lower by the end of December 2026. Unusually, only the official daily settlement price of the defined Active Month contract counts, while intraday prices, lows, and subsequent corrections are excluded.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or below $3,000 on any trading day between market creation and the final trading day of December 2026. Only the first published settlement price on the CME settlement page counts; intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, indicative prices, and subsequent corrections are disregarded. The market resolves to No if the official settlement price does not reach or fall below $3,000 by the final trading day of December 2026. Resolution is determined using data published on the CME Group website.
Key dates
- Final trading day of December 2026: End of the evaluation window for settlement prices.
Resolution source
CME Group website
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