Will Wales win the UEFA EURO 2028?
Last captured price
0.3¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.3%
$2.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on the official tournament winner announced by UEFA, with credible media reporting as a secondary source. The outcome conditions are straightforward, though participants should note the early resolution provision: the market can resolve to No ahead of the final tournament if the nation is eliminated during qualifying or the tournament itself. There is also a defined longstop date of July 23, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, after which any postponement or cancellation leads to an Other resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the nation that wins the UEFA EURO 2028. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed nation to win the UEFA EURO 2028 per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Wales will win the UEFA EURO 2028 football tournament.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Wales wins the UEFA EURO 2028. The market resolves to No if it becomes impossible at any point for Wales to win the tournament under UEFA rules, such as elimination in the playoffs. The market resolves to Other if the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed beyond July 23, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, or if no winner is declared by that time. Official information from UEFA serves as the primary resolution source, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Resolution and postponement deadline: — Tournament must declare a winner by 11:59 PM ET or the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
UEFA
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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