Will Austria win the UEFA EURO 2028?
Current price
1.65¢
−0.3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.65%
$4.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the conditions for resolution based on the outcome of UEFA EURO 2028. Official information from the tournament governing body UEFA serves as the primary source, with an explicit early resolution provision to No if Austria is eliminated from contention. There is also a concrete longstop deadline of July 23, 2028, resolving to Other if the tournament is cancelled, excessively postponed, or fails to produce a winner.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the nation that wins the UEFA EURO 2028. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed nation to win the UEFA EURO 2028 per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Austria will win the UEFA EURO 2028 championship tournament. It features an early resolution trigger if Austria is eliminated before the tournament concludes.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Austria wins the UEFA EURO 2028 tournament. The market resolves to No if it becomes impossible for Austria to win under UEFA rules, such as being eliminated in the playoffs. The market resolves to Other if UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed beyond July 23, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, or if no winner is declared by that deadline. Official information from UEFA serves as the primary resolution source, alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution Cutoff Deadline: — Market resolves to Other if tournament is cancelled, postponed past this time, or no winner is declared.
Resolution source
UEFA or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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