Will Armenia win the UEFA EURO 2028?
Current price
3.3¢
+0.4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.3%
$1.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The outcome is anchored to an official tournament result governed by UEFA. Participants should be aware of the early resolution provision, which allows the market to resolve to No as soon as it becomes mathematically or officially impossible for Armenia to win, such as elimination during qualification or group stages prior to the tournament final. A clear cutoff date of July 23, 2028, resolves the market to Other if the tournament is postponed or cancelled.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the nation that wins the UEFA EURO 2028. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed nation to win the UEFA EURO 2028 per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Armenia will win the UEFA EURO 2028 tournament. It includes a specific deadline after which postponement triggers a resolution to Other.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Armenia wins the UEFA EURO 2028. The market resolves to No if it becomes impossible for Armenia to win the tournament under UEFA rules, such as elimination in the playoffs. The market resolves to Other if the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed beyond July 23, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, or if no winner is declared by that time. Official information from UEFA serves as the primary resolution source, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Postponement and resolution cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if the tournament is cancelled, postponed past this time, or has no declared winner
Resolution source
official information from UEFA or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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