Will Ukraine win the UEFA EURO 2028?
Current price
0.3¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.3%
$2.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market follows straightforward sports tournament mechanics with clear resolution criteria. Resolution is anchored primarily in official announcements from UEFA, the governing body of the competition. The rules include standard provisions for early resolution to 'No' as soon as Ukraine is mathematically eliminated from winning the tournament, as well as a specific fallback resolution date of July 23, 2028, resolving to 'Other' if the event is cancelled or postponed beyond that cutoff.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the nation that wins the UEFA EURO 2028. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed nation to win the UEFA EURO 2028 per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ukraine will win the UEFA EURO 2028 football tournament.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ukraine wins the UEFA EURO 2028. The market resolves to No if it becomes impossible at any point for Ukraine to win the tournament under UEFA rules, such as being eliminated in the playoffs. The market resolves to Other if the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, or if no winner is declared within that timeframe. The primary resolution source is official information from UEFA, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Resolution cutoff deadline: — Tournament must declare a winner by this time or the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Official information from UEFA, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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