Will Turkey win the UEFA EURO 2028?
Last captured price
1.35¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.35%
$5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market follows a standard sporting tournament outcome based on official UEFA results. Participants should note the early resolution clause, which allows the market to settle as No as soon as Turkey is eliminated or mathematically unable to win the tournament, rather than waiting for the tournament final. Additionally, if the tournament is cancelled or not completed by July 23, 2028, the rules specify resolution to an Other outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the nation that wins the UEFA EURO 2028. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed nation to win the UEFA EURO 2028 per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Turkey will win the UEFA EURO 2028 tournament. It features an early No resolution upon elimination and resolves to Other if the event is cancelled or delayed past July 23, 2028.
How it resolves
This market resolves to Yes if Turkey wins the UEFA EURO 2028. This market resolves to No if it becomes impossible for Turkey to win the tournament according to UEFA rules, such as being eliminated in the playoffs. This market resolves to Other if the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, or if no winner is declared within that timeframe. The primary resolution source is official information from UEFA, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Resolution cutoff date: — Market resolves to Other if the tournament is postponed past 11:59 PM ET on this date, cancelled, or has no declared winner.
Resolution source
UEFA
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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