Will Sweden win the UEFA EURO 2028?
Current price
0.65¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.65%
$3.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on official tournament outcomes from UEFA, with clear criteria for determining the winner. It includes an early resolution trigger specifying that the market will resolve to No as soon as Sweden is mathematically or formally eliminated from contention. A specific fallback date is provided, resolving to Other if the tournament is cancelled or postponed beyond late July 2028. The rules directly match straightforward expectations for a major international football championship.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the nation that wins the UEFA EURO 2028. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed nation to win the UEFA EURO 2028 per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Sweden will win the UEFA EURO 2028 tournament. The market includes a specific fallback resolution to Other if the tournament is postponed past a late July 2028 deadline or cancelled entirely.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Sweden wins the UEFA EURO 2028. The market resolves to No if it becomes impossible for Sweden to win the tournament according to UEFA rules, such as being eliminated during the playoffs. The market resolves to Other if the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed beyond July 23, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, or if no winner is declared within that timeframe. Official information from UEFA serves as the primary resolution source, with a consensus of credible reporting also accepted.
Key dates
- Postponement cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if the tournament is postponed past this deadline or if no winner is declared.
Resolution source
Official information from UEFA, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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