Will Spain win the UEFA EURO 2028?
Current price
22.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 22.5%
$6.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market relies on official information from UEFA to determine the tournament champion, providing a clear and authoritative standard. Participants should note the early resolution provision: if Spain is eliminated during qualifiers or the tournament proper, making a title impossible under tournament rules, the market will resolve to "No" immediately rather than waiting for the final match. Additionally, if the competition is cancelled or delayed past July 23, 2028 without a winner, the market resolves to "Other". These explicit operational conditions leave little ambiguity regarding how the outcome will be decided.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the nation that wins the UEFA EURO 2028. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed nation to win the UEFA EURO 2028 per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Spain will win the UEFA EURO 2028 football tournament. The market includes early resolution if Spain is eliminated and resolves to Other if the tournament is delayed past July 2028.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Spain wins the UEFA EURO 2028. The market resolves to No if it becomes impossible for Spain to win the tournament per UEFA rules, such as being eliminated during the playoffs. The market resolves to Other if the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, or if no winner is declared within that timeframe. Official information from UEFA will serve as the primary resolution source, with a consensus of credible reporting also permitted.
Key dates
- Postponement cutoff date: — If the tournament is postponed past this time or cancelled without a winner, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Official information from UEFA or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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