Will Serbia win the UEFA EURO 2028?
Last captured price
0.45¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.45%
$2.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on the official winner of UEFA EURO 2028 as determined by UEFA. An early resolution rule applies, meaning the market can resolve to 'No' prior to the final if Serbia is mathematically eliminated or fails to qualify per tournament rules. If the tournament is cancelled, postponed beyond July 23, 2028, or concludes without a declared champion by that time, the market resolves to 'Other' rather than a standard binary outcome. Because the tournament outcome is an unambiguous official sports result, resolution relies on verifiable official tournament data with minimal room for dispute.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the nation that wins the UEFA EURO 2028. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed nation to win the UEFA EURO 2028 per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Serbia will win the UEFA EURO 2028 tournament. It includes explicit provisions for early negative resolution upon elimination and a longstop deadline for tournament completion.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Serbia wins the UEFA EURO 2028. The market resolves to No if it becomes impossible for Serbia to win under UEFA rules, such as being eliminated during qualifying or tournament play. The market resolves to Other if the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed beyond July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, or if no winner is declared by that time. The primary resolution source is official information from UEFA, with a consensus of credible reporting also permitted.
Key dates
- Postponement cutoff deadline: — Market resolves to Other if postponed past this date at 11:59 PM ET or no winner is declared.
Resolution source
Official information from UEFA, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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