Will San Marino win the UEFA EURO 2028?
Last captured price
2.4¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.4%
$1.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are straightforward and rely primarily on official information from UEFA regarding the winner of UEFA EURO 2028. Participants should note the early resolution clause, which specifies that the market will resolve to No as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for San Marino to win under UEFA rules, such as being eliminated during qualifying stages or playoffs. Additionally, if the tournament is cancelled or postponed beyond July 23, 2028, the market resolves to Other.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the nation that wins the UEFA EURO 2028. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed nation to win the UEFA EURO 2028 per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether San Marino will win the UEFA EURO 2028 tournament. A key feature is that the market can resolve early to No if the team is mathematically or competitively eliminated prior to the final.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if San Marino wins the UEFA EURO 2028. The market resolves to No if at any point it becomes impossible under UEFA rules for San Marino to win, such as being eliminated in the qualifiers or tournament stages. The market resolves to Other if the tournament is cancelled, postponed past July 23, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, or if no winner is declared within that timeframe. Official information from UEFA serves as the primary resolution source, supported by a consensus of credible reporting if necessary.
Key dates
- Tournament completion deadline: — Market resolves to Other if the tournament is cancelled, postponed past this time, or no winner is declared
Resolution source
Official information from UEFA, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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