Will Portugal win the UEFA EURO 2028?
Current price
9¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 9%
$3.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The outcome is anchored directly to the official results from UEFA determining the champion of UEFA EURO 2028. Participants should note the early resolution clause, which triggers an immediate resolution to No if Portugal is mathematically eliminated before the final. Additionally, there is a fixed expiration deadline of July 23, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, after which cancellation, extended postponement, or absence of an official winner will result in the market resolving to Other.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the nation that wins the UEFA EURO 2028. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed nation to win the UEFA EURO 2028 per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Portugal will win the UEFA EURO 2028 tournament. It features a resolution to Other if the event is cancelled, postponed past a July 2028 deadline, or concludes without a declared winner.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Portugal wins the UEFA EURO 2028. The market resolves to No if it becomes impossible for Portugal to win the tournament under UEFA rules, such as being eliminated in the playoffs. The market resolves to Other if the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, or if no winner is declared within that timeframe. Resolution decisions rely primarily on official information from UEFA, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Postponement deadline: — Market resolves to Other if postponed after this time or if no winner is declared by this deadline.
Resolution source
Official information from UEFA, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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