Will Poland win the UEFA EURO 2028?
Last captured price
1.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.15%
$3.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The outcome is clearly defined by whether Poland wins the UEFA EURO 2028 tournament, with official information from UEFA serving as the primary authority and credible reporting as a secondary check. Holders should note the early resolution provision, which allows the market to resolve to No as soon as Poland is eliminated from contention during qualifying, playoffs, or the tournament itself. Additionally, if the tournament is cancelled or postponed beyond July 23, 2028 without a winner, the market resolves to Other.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the nation that wins the UEFA EURO 2028. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed nation to win the UEFA EURO 2028 per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Poland will win the UEFA EURO 2028 tournament. It features an early No resolution upon elimination and an Other resolution if the tournament is delayed past a specified cutoff date.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Poland wins the UEFA EURO 2028. The market resolves to No if at any point it becomes impossible for Poland to win the tournament under UEFA rules, such as being eliminated in the playoffs. The market resolves to Other if UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, or if no winner is declared by that time. Official information from UEFA is the primary deciding source, with a consensus of credible reporting as a secondary source.
Key dates
- Postponement and Cancellation Cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if the tournament is cancelled, postponed past this deadline, or lacks a declared winner.
Resolution source
Official information from UEFA or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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