Will Norway win the UEFA EURO 2028?
Current price
6.45¢
+0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.45%
$9.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market straightforwardly resolves based on the official tournament winner crowned by UEFA. Early resolution to No occurs if Norway is mathematically eliminated at any stage, such as during qualifying or tournament play, which aligns with standard sports tournament mechanics. A clear cutoff date of July 23, 2028 is provided in the event of tournament postponement or cancellation, triggering resolution to Other. Official UEFA data serves as the primary authority, minimizing discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the nation that wins the UEFA EURO 2028. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed nation to win the UEFA EURO 2028 per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Norway will win the UEFA EURO 2028 soccer tournament. A distinct feature of this market is an explicit deadline rule that resolves the market to Other if the competition is cancelled or delayed beyond late July 2028.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Norway wins the UEFA EURO 2028. The market resolves to No if at any point it becomes impossible for Norway to win the UEFA EURO 2028 per the rules of UEFA, such as by being eliminated in the playoffs. The market resolves to Other if the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, or if there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe. Official information from UEFA serves as the primary resolution source, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Resolution Cutoff Deadline: — Market resolves to Other if the tournament is cancelled, postponed past this time, or has no winner declared.
Resolution source
Official information from UEFA, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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