Will Netherlands win the UEFA EURO 2028?
Current price
4.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.5%
$4.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market has clear resolution conditions tied directly to the official outcome of UEFA EURO 2028. Resolution relies primarily on official information from UEFA, the governing body of the tournament. The rules clearly state that if the Netherlands is mathematically eliminated or unable to win under tournament rules, the market resolves early to No. Additionally, a clear deadline of July 23, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET is established, resolving the market to Other if the tournament is cancelled, postponed past that date, or fails to produce a winner.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the nation that wins the UEFA EURO 2028. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed nation to win the UEFA EURO 2028 per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Netherlands will win the UEFA EURO 2028 tournament.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Netherlands wins the UEFA EURO 2028. The market resolves to No if it becomes impossible for the Netherlands to win the tournament under UEFA rules, such as being eliminated in the playoffs. The market resolves to Other if the tournament is cancelled, postponed beyond July 23, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, or if no winner is declared within that timeframe. Resolution decisions are based primarily on official information from UEFA, with a consensus of credible reporting used if necessary.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline for tournament completion: — The market resolves to Other if the tournament is cancelled, postponed beyond this time, or has no declared winner.
Resolution source
Official information from UEFA, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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