Will Latvia win the UEFA EURO 2028?
Last captured price
2.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.5%
$978.2 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market has unambiguous criteria tied to the official winner of UEFA EURO 2028 as declared by UEFA. It includes an early resolution trigger resolving the market to 'No' as soon as Latvia is mathematically eliminated from winning the tournament or qualifying for it. In the event of cancellation or postponement beyond July 23, 2028, the market resolves to 'Other'.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the nation that wins the UEFA EURO 2028. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed nation to win the UEFA EURO 2028 per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Latvia will win the UEFA EURO 2028 soccer tournament.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Latvia wins the UEFA EURO 2028. The market resolves to No if at any point it becomes impossible for Latvia to win the tournament under UEFA rules, such as being eliminated in the playoffs. The market resolves to Other if the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed beyond July 23, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, or if no winner is declared within that timeframe. Resolution will be determined using official information from UEFA, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Postponement / resolution deadline: — Tournament must declare a winner by this time or the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Official information from UEFA, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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