Will Italy win the UEFA EURO 2028?
Current price
3.45¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.45%
$3.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves clearly based on whether Italy wins the tournament, with official UEFA data designated as the primary authority. Participants should note the early resolution provision, which allows the market to settle to No as soon as Italy is mathematically or formally eliminated from contention. Additionally, if the tournament is postponed beyond July 23, 2028, or cancelled without a declared winner, the market settles to Other rather than waiting indefinitely.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the nation that wins the UEFA EURO 2028. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed nation to win the UEFA EURO 2028 per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Italy will win the UEFA EURO 2028 tournament. It features an early "No" resolution upon mathematical elimination and resolves to "Other" if the tournament is cancelled or postponed past a specific deadline.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Italy wins the UEFA EURO 2028. The market resolves to No if it becomes impossible for Italy to win the tournament under UEFA rules, such as being eliminated in the playoffs. The market resolves to Other if the tournament is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, or if no winner is declared within that timeframe. Official information from UEFA serves as the primary resolution source, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Tournament must declare a winner by this time or the market resolves to Other
Resolution source
Official information from UEFA, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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