Will Iceland win the UEFA EURO 2028?
Last captured price
2.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.5%
$2.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define that resolution depends on whether Iceland wins UEFA EURO 2028 based on official UEFA information. The market features an early resolution provision if Iceland is eliminated during qualifying or the tournament itself, and specifies that a cancellation or delay past July 23, 2028, resolves the market to Other.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the nation that wins the UEFA EURO 2028. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed nation to win the UEFA EURO 2028 per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Iceland will win the UEFA EURO 2028 tournament. It features a resolution to Other if the tournament is cancelled, postponed beyond a specified date, or fails to declare a winner.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Iceland wins the UEFA EURO 2028 tournament. It resolves to No if at any point it becomes impossible for Iceland to win per the rules of UEFA, such as being eliminated in the playoffs. It resolves to Other if the tournament is cancelled, postponed past July 23, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, or if no winner is declared within that timeframe. Official information from UEFA serves as the primary resolution source, with a consensus of credible reporting also permitted.
Key dates
- Resolution Cutoff Deadline: — The market resolves to Other if the tournament is postponed beyond this time or no winner is declared.
Resolution source
Official information from UEFA or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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