Will Hungary win the UEFA EURO 2028?
Last captured price
0.35¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.35%
$3.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The outcome depends directly on the winner of the tournament as determined by official UEFA information, with a consensus of credible reporting permitted as a backup. Holders should be aware that the market can resolve to No early as soon as it becomes impossible for Hungary to win under tournament rules, such as elimination during qualifying or the knockout stages. Additionally, if the tournament is cancelled, postponed beyond July 23, 2028, or yields no declared winner by that deadline, the market resolves to Other rather than waiting indefinitely.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the nation that wins the UEFA EURO 2028. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed nation to win the UEFA EURO 2028 per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Hungary will win the UEFA EURO 2028 tournament. It includes a specific deadline after which postponement or absence of a winner results in a resolution to Other.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Hungary wins the UEFA EURO 2028. The market resolves to No if it becomes impossible for Hungary to win under UEFA rules, such as being eliminated in the playoffs. The market resolves to Other if the tournament is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, or if no winner is declared within that timeframe. Resolution is determined primarily by official information from UEFA, with a consensus of credible reporting accepted as an alternative.
Key dates
- Postponement and resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if cancelled, postponed beyond 11:59 PM ET on this date, or if no winner is declared by then.
Resolution source
Official information from UEFA, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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